Santana is O-ver-rate-ed

Santana is a bit overrated. I think that while he’s really awesome and everything, he’s not as good as everyone says.  His batting average against, OBP against, OPS agains, and SLG agains have all risen in the last 4 years. His HR against has been decent 3 of the last 4 years, but last year it exploded to 3rd worst in the league. His move to the NL will help him, but I doubt he will be Pedro-like.  My prediction: 17-8, 2.96 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 238 K.

First Post by Me: Bedard to the Mariners

By Steve

Yeah, yeah, it’s not a fantasy post. It is, however, baseball-related, and since I am an unhealthy Seattle Mariners fan, I felt that my opinion regarding the Erik Bedard-Adam Jones rumors would make a good first post. Plus, I had already written this elsewhere, so it takes almost no work to post it here.

The Mariners have nearly made a deal that would send prospects Adam Jones and pitcher Chris Tillman, plus reliever George Sherrill, to the Baltimore Orioles for ace starting pitcher Erik Bedard. The rationale for the deal is obvious: put Bedard and Felix Hernandez at the top of the starting rotation, and the Mariners will have one of the top pitching staffs in baseball. I agree that getting Bedard puts the Mariners in the top six rotations (Boston, New York Mets, Toronto, LA Angels, Cleveland). Listing those five teams, a number of issues come to mind:

1. Four of those teams are in the American League.

2. The Yankees and Tigers are not on that list, probably the two best offenses in baseball.

3. Boston, Cleveland, and the Angels all scored more runs than the Mariners last season.

4. Part of making the Bedard deal is replacing Jose Guillen’s production not with Adam Jones, but with Brad Wilkerson or some other retread.

5. Not only does the Mariner offense get worse, but so does the outfield defense. By a lot.

6. The Mariners are getting a star for two years on the fairly cheap, and giving up a potential star with six years on the much cheaper.

Part of being a good general manager is rationally assessing the potential of your team. This characteristic, more than any other, is why Billy Beane had so much success from 2000-2006. With Bedard, the Mariners are better this year than they were last year, but by how much? Is that Seattle team really good enough to compete with the Angels? Adam Jones is about as surefire a prospect as the Mariners have had since A-Rod, and to give him up in a now-or-never deal with this team just doesn’t make enough sense. If things break right, especially some Angel injuries, it could look like a genius move. Hope, though, is unfortunately not a strategy.

Hello!!!

This website is devoted to sports discussions, mostly of the fantasy variety. Steve Johnson and I (Will Larson) got into an argument about Johan Santana and we were like, “our arguments are entertaining; dude, we should start a blog.” So here we go. If you have anything interesting to say, let me know and I can get you access to post a threat. As far as I know, everyone can leave comments.