Closers are NOT overrated

Fantasy sports pundits have been bashing the hell out of closers, telling people not to draft them early.

Yet people keep drafting them early.

Rather than assume that most fantasy baseball players are crazy, my instinct as an economist is to assume that people are actually rational and that all of the sports pundits are wrong.

So why are people drafting closers early? I’m going to begin by assuming that the draft position is an accurate measure of value and then try to explain why each is valued that way.

Tier 1:
Jonathan Papelbon 38.7
J.J. Putz 46.3
Francisco Rodriguez 53
Joe Nathan 56.8

This group has 3 qualities; high performance, no injury history, good teams (lot’s of save opportunities/less likely to be traded at the deadline)

Tier 2a:
Takashi Saito 63.9
Billy Wagner 72.2
Mariano Rivera 78.2
Francisco Cordero 88.6
Huston Street 103.1
Trevor Hoffman 106.3
Jason Isringhausen 121.3

Tier 2b:
Jose Valverde 81.4
Bobby Jenks 87.8
Manny Corpas 117.3
Chad Cordero 125.4
Rafael Soriano 122.7
Matt Capps 122.8

These two groups are about the same value–all are solid closers and all have some risk. Tier 2a is very old and is potentially an injury/effectiveness risk, mostly on the injury side. They are high-risk high-return players because they’ll either be worth how they’ve done historically or there will be a catastrophic drop-off. Tier 2b is a group with good closers but with a small track record. Again, the question isn’t performance, it’s injury/effectiveness risk–this time the concern is on the effectiveness side.

Tier 3:
Joe Borowski 143.5
Todd Jones 136.8
Joakim Soria 146.8
Brad Lidge 147.6
Kevin Gregg 157.7
Eric Gagne 165.5

These guys are bad. Veeeery bad. They close and that’s why they’re worth anything. By the end of the season, half of them will be worthless (not closing).

Tier 4:
Carlos Marmol 165.5
Jeremy Accardo 165.6
Brandon Lyon 173.3
Brian Wilson 173.8
B.J. Ryan 176.7
Troy Percival 192.5

Some of these guys fall into the ‘bad’ category but also have a risk of not starting the season as closer. Others are effective but have a lower probability of closing.

Ok, so why is the top tier so good? The way I like to look at saves is as a portfolio. Say I want to get 100 saves over the course of a season. If I get one of the players from tier 1, I have 40 down with almost no risk (1/10 chance of some sort of injury/ineffectiveness meaning they’d be worth nothing), plus a bonus to your other categories. Tier 2, I get 30-40 saves, but with about a 1/5 chance of nothing. Tier 3 is about 30 saves with a 1/4 chance of nothing but they hurt your era and whip. Tier 4 is about 30 saves with a 2/3 chance of nothing. If you assume this is correct, the expected number of saves is something more like 36 | 30 | 22 | 20. Do you really want to risk 5 draft picks on tier 4 players who will give you bad peripherals, or would you rather have maybe 1 tier 1, 1 tier 3, and then troll the waiver wire for some more saves? That is a much less risky strategy and is potentially much healthier for your pitching peripherals. Yes you have to eat a 5-6th round draft pick, but the same could be said for players like hunter pence or matt kemp. There are guys like that every year off the waiver wire.

What you’re paying for is to avoid risk. I always try to get two tier 2 closers and then as many tier 4 as I can. The risk you face is very low in terms of the number of saves you’ll get over the course of the season and to have one category locked up like that is very handy.

Player Analysis: Matt Kemp

Will, I am treating your question as an opportunity to “answer” why Matt Kemp is rated so high, or low, depending on your point of view.

A little background is in order here. I have done four mock drafts so far, and Kemp has hung around well past the 66th pick in all of them. Then, today I looked at the mock draft done by experts for ESPN.com, and Kemp goes 51st. So, ESPN.com seems to be rating Kemp significantly higher than the general public.

One of the reasons Kemp’s value has climbed this year is because he is actually going to play full-time. Last year, AARP member Luis Gonzalez patrolled the outfield along with Andre Ethier and Juan Pierre. The Dodgers signed Andruw Jones to play centerfield, pushing Pierre into a battle with Ethier over the leftfielder job. Kemp, by all accounts, has rightfielder sewn up, and should get more than the 292 AB he got last year.

A quick look at Kemp’s stats raise two red flags. First, Kemp only walked 16 times and struck out 66 times. The strikeout rate is not bad, but when compared to his walk rate it is awful. Last season, 280 players had at least 300 PA. Kemp finished 248th in BB/PA, and 266th in BB/K. Basically, his plate discipline is horrible.

Second, Kemp had 100 hits last season. For a guy who is 6′2″, 230 lbs., you would think that he would have a ton of power. However, 73 of those hits were singles. So, he may have gotten inordinately lucky last year.

So, is Kemp headed for a significant slide in 2008? Well, first, let’s take a closer look at the first red flag, his plate discipline. Kemp actually showed great improvement in his K% between 2006 and 2007. If he is able to further cut down on his strikeouts, he will just be a guy who puts the ball in play almost all the time. Looking at his K% in the minors, improvement is very possible. If that K% holds, or goes up, without the BB% improving, be on notice that a sophomore slump could be coming.

What about Kemp getting lucky when he puts the ball in play? Actually, Kemp has had a knack for hitting it where they ain’t for the last two years. Kemp’s BABIP has been over .370 in the minors the last two years, regardless of the level he’s played. Therefore, while I expect a regression from the insane .417 he hit last season, his BABIP should still be very high. His line drive % should also go up from 17.9% last year.

Kemp’s value will be higher in leagues where AVG is a category instead of OBP, but he should remain an asset in both. At least this season he should still be largely a singles hitter. However, with his job safe, a .310/20/85 year with 15 SBs is definitely not out of the question.

So, where does a .310/20/85 season put Kemp amongst the other outfielders? In a single season league, ESPN.com has Kemp 19th:

16. Bobby Abreu 17. Manny Ramirez 18. Torii Hunter 19. Matt Kemp 20. Hunter Pence 21. Corey Hart 22. Adam Dunn

I think this is fair, although I personally think Hunter is a huge risk to take at that point in the draft. However, looking beyond Kemp, we see three outfielders who have virtually the same value. Once you get past Alex Rios at 15, the value of the following outfielders is very similar. Therefore, I wouldn’t use a sixth round pick on Kemp, which is what you would have to use to get him at 66.

The keeper league analysis is different. At 23, Kemp has a long career ahead of him, and he could challenge for batting titles while hitting 30 HR and getting 20 SB. Is that his ceiling? Maybe, but it would not be too much to expect Kemp to turn into a top 12 outfield in two years. You could do much worse with a fourth or fifth round pick.

Matt Kemp

Why the hell is this guy #66 in the ESPN pre rankings. I’ve pored over this guy’s stats and I just don’t see it. Is there something I’m missing?

Arbitration

I have to wonder how in the world this works.  I mean seriously, it seems like anyone could be on an arbitration panel.  Do they do what we do everyday?  Look at stats and decided how each player stacks up to other players, and then award them money based on stats?  Arbitration has always confused me, anyone know how this actually works?

Clemens

I take great joy in the demise of Clemens.  With Bonds, I didn’t like the guy, but I felt bad for baseball more than hate towards him when he broke Aaron’s record.  Clemens combined the reckless intimidation tactics of Nolan Ryan with an arrogance unmatched on the mound.  He threw a broken bat at Mike Piazza in the World Series.  He wore a patch on his glove to commemorate his own accomplishment of 300 wins.  He made Brett Favre look decisive with his retirements, then milked his returns for all they were worth.  I take great Schaudenfreude in his demise.

AL Closer Report Part Thrice

Back, and the same as ever. Again, the number next to the closer is how secure I rate that closer’s job, from 1-5.

East

Orioles – George Sherrill (2). Sherrill has never closed (he has four career saves), and comes over from Seattle where he was the primary lefty setup guy. He did very well in that role last year, and was tough on both right-handed hitters as well as left-handed hitters. We won’t know how he fairs in regular ninth inning duty until he gets on the mound. However, who are the Orioles going to replace him with if he struggles? Next in line: Chad Bradford? Stay tuned.

Blue Jays – B.J. Ryan (1). Apparently, Ryan is back and ready to go after having Tommy John surgery last May. I wouldn’t drink the Kool-Aid on this one. Tommy John surgery recipients usually take 18 months to get back to full strength, and Ryan’s motion puts a lot of strain on his elbow. If I were the Blue Jays, especially with the success their bullpen had last year without Ryan, I would wait until the All-Star break to bring him back, and give him the closer’s job in 2009. Next in line: Jeremy Accardo.

Yankees – Mariano Rivera (4). Four? Enter Sandman? He’s a total, complete, undisputed lock for the closer’s role! Come on! Well, he is coming off of his worst year as a closer… 3.15 ERA with four blown saves in 34 chances. He is also 38 years-old, gave up more extra-base hits, and more hits overall than any other year he has closed. I still think he will be fine for at least one more season, but the decline is coming. Plus… Next in line: Joba Chamberlain.

Red Sox – Jonathan Papelbon (5). Looks like this is his job for good, now that the starting experiment is over and the Sox have two good, young pitchers on the way. The Lance Armstrong-esque, comeback from cancer kid Jon Lester and he of the no-hitter Clay Buchholz should find their way into the rotation this season, freeing up Papelbon to shut the door. Next in line: Hideki Okajima (good for five-ten saves himself).

Rays – Troy Percival (2). Did Pat Robertson make Tampa Bay drop the “Devil” from its name? Whatever. Troy Percival is old, washed up, and bad. He had a solid half-season last year in a setup role, but I strongly expect him to wilt under the pressure of closing again. Looks at his last closer’s gig in Detroit and tell me how that went. The Rays have tried to shore up their consistently anemic bullpen with the additions of Percival and Dan Wheeler, but that young, emerging rotation is still going to have several wins squandered by this group. Next in line: Al Reyes.

The greatest joy is the shameful joy

Schadenfreude.  Malicious pleasure derived from other’s misfortune.  Loosely translated from German: shameful joy.

Roger Clemens.  A fat egotist who worships money and fame.  Loosely translated from English: Collie-molesting Ohian who pretends he is a good ol’ boy. 

So, I’m usually pretty level-headed when it comes to sports.  Sure, I’m borderline psychotic during the contests, but I’m usually able to find some semblence of perspective and personal enjoyment quickly after the fact of even the most disasterous and infuriating sporting events.  Yet, when the topic is Roger Clemens, there is no perspective.  The fat slug holds no warm place in my heart, though there are some other areas of my insides which I do associate him with quite closely.  He is a vile, shameful man who deserves nothing but unrepentant vitriol and uncompassionate berating.  Also, based on his choice in child names (Koby, Kevin, Kermit, Konseco, and Koocooforcocopuffs), sterilization should probably remain on the table as a good option.  He is an abhorrent human being, a con man not intelligent enough to mask his ridiculously self-serving intentions under his idiotic and weak cover stories, and he insults our intelligence every time he opens his mouth by presuming we could ever sink down to his level of mite-grooming, poop-flinging discourse.  The man is a blight upon the sport, the country, the human race, and possibly Texas. 

 Now, before I let this post drift into my real feelings on the man and actually say something that is mean just for the sake of being mean, I want to clear up what this is not.  This is not an attempt to relive and recount the numerous offenses; Bill Simmons does a good job taking him up through part of his reign in New York (version 1.0) in his balanced and level-headed examination of him in his piece: Is Clemens the Anti-Christ?  While his assinine jackanery continued through his turns on the Astro (“I’ll take a hometown discount of $5mm per season.” and “Last season was so much fun that I’d be thrilled to do it again; for $22mm”) and the Yankees (version 2.0, which coincidentally was the number of games he pitched well).  There is no sense harping on every minute transgression, every illegal trade he forced, every huge contract he didn’t live up to only to turn around and ask for another huge contract and get it from another team where he actually showed up in shape (and apparently on his wife’s ‘roids).  Other have done that.  Other far better writers than me have written all about one of the greatest pitchers in history, one whose perserverence, grit, and fortitude that could only be felled by in an NLCS game seven by one of the alltime greats.  Obviously, this would be unneccesary.

Also, this is not the forum to discuss the merits of a man who might very well have perjured and witness-tampered his way to an indictment the other day.  We don’t even need to discuss how he blamed everyone and anyone else for his numerous and suspicious ties to steroids: his hand-picked trainer, his best bussom buddy Andy Pettite, his lovely wife Debbie, and Jesus.  Again, other writers have covered this.

Finally, this is not an attempt to bash the man or dance merrily through the effervescent joy that came from watching the greatest bung-hole of a generation, and possibly ever, slither and squirm in front of the most powerful legislative forum in the world.  Though, admittedly, that was very fun.

The real reason I’m discussing Roger Clemens is to ask a question.  Does anyone else find it odd that Roger Clemens sees his reputation tarnished, which is immediately followed by Fidel Castro resigning?  A more suspicious man than myself might put these two events together and conclude that perhaps Castro’s entire reign of terror was predicated on Clemens’ success and reputation, basing his horrific and powerful regime on the Dayton Dumby’s status as a baseball icon.  Food for thought…

Karabell’s 2006 Rankings

Every year I download all of the web pages with draft lists for quick access come draft time. Tonight I was just cleaning up my documents folder when I found my baseball folder from 2006.  Here is Erik Karabell’s 2006 rankings. My how things change. One thing that’s stayed the same is how every sports pundit says that Carl Crawford is due for a power boom. We’ve been hearing about that for the last 5 frickin years….and still waiting for that 20 hr season

ERIC’S TOP 200 (2006)
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
3. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
4. Mark Teixeira, Rangers
5. Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
6. Derrek Lee, Cubs
7. Miguel Tejada, Orioles
8. David Ortiz, Red Sox
9. Alfonso Soriano, Nationals
10. Johan Santana, Twins
11. David Wright, Mets
12. Miguel Cabrera, Marlins
13. Bobby Abreu, Phillies
14. Jason Bay, Pirates
15. Carl Crawford, Devil Rays
16. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
17. Carlos Beltran, Mets
18. Pedro Martinez, Mets
19. Travis Hafner, Indians
20. Chris Carpenter, Cardinals
21. Michael Young, Rangers
22. Todd Helton, Rockies
23. Roy Oswalt, Astros
24. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
25. Derek Jeter, Yankees
26. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
27. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
28. Chase Utley, Phillies
29. Chone Figgins, Angels
30. Lance Berkman, Astros
31. Jose Reyes, Mets
32. Jake Peavy, Padres
33. Hideki Matsui, Yankees
34. Carlos Delgado, Mets
35. Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
36. Gary Sheffield, Yankees
37. Ben Sheets, Brewers
38. Grady Sizemore, Indians
39. Eric Chavez, A’s
40. Andruw Jones, Braves
41. Randy Johnson, Yankees
42. Paul Konerko, White Sox
43. Adam Dunn, Reds
44. Dontrelle Willis, Marlins
45. Marcus Giles, Braves
46. Mark Prior, Cubs
47. Scott Rolen, Cardinals
48. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
49. Jeff Kent, Dodgers
50. Barry Bonds, Giants
51. Victor Martinez, Indians
52. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
53. Johnny Damon, Yankees
54. Carlos Lee, Brewers
55. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
56. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
57. Juan Pierre, Cubs
58. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
59. Ryan Howard, Phillies
60. Rich Harden, A’s
61. Melvin Mora, Orioles
62. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
63. Scott Podsednik, White Sox
64. Brad Lidge, Astros
65. Curt Schilling, Red Sox
66. Morgan Ensberg, Astros
67. Jason Schmidt, Giants
68. Richie Sexson, Mariners
69. Felipe Lopez, Reds
70. Joe Nathan, Twins
71. Hank Blalock, Rangers
72. John Smoltz, Braves
73. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
74. Jorge Cantu, Devil Rays
75. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
76. Billy Wagner, Mets
77. Jason Giambi, Yankees
78. Chipper Jones, Braves
79. Aubrey Huff, Devil Rays
80. Tadahito Iguchi, White Sox
81. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
82. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
83. Clint Barmes, Rockies
84. Bartolo Colon, Angels
85. Brian Roberts, Orioles
86. Troy Glaus, Blue Jays
87. Joe Mauer, Twins
88. Pat Burrell, Phillies
89. Matt Holliday, Rockies
90. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
91. Edgar Renteria, Braves
92. Chad Cordero, Nationals
93. Jim Thome, White Sox
94. Randy Winn, Giants
95. Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
96. Brian Giles, Padres
97. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
98. Julio Lugo, Devil Rays
99. Jim Edmonds, Cardinals
100. Roger Clemens, FA
101. Mike Sweeney, Royals
102. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
103. Javy Lopez, Orioles
104. Tim Hudson, Braves
105. Matt Morris, Giants
106. Mark Loretta, Red Sox
107. Chris Shelton, Tigers
108. Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
109. Justin Morneau, Twins
110. Andy Pettitte, Astros
111. Torii Hunter, Twins
112. Bobby Crosby, A’s
113. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers
114. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
115. Freddy Garcia, White Sox
116. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
117. Garret Atkins, Rockies
118. Juan Uribe, White Sox
119. Eric Gagne, Dodgers
120. Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays
121. Huston Street, A’s
122. Robinson Cano, Yankees
123. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
124. Ryan Freel, Reds
125. Francisco Cordero, Rangers
126. Noah Lowry, Giants
127. Carlos Guillen, Tigers
128. Mike Lowell, Red Sox
129. Armando Benitez, Giants
130. Placido Polanco, Tigers
131. Prince Fielder, Brewers
132. John Lackey, Angels
133. Barry Zito, A’s
134. Craig Monroe, Tigers
135. Shea Hillenbrand, Blue Jays
136. Ken Griffey Jr., Reds
137. Nomar Garciaparra, Dodgers
138. John Patterson, Nationals
139. Derrick Turnbow, Brewers
140. Jorge Posada, Yankees
141. Craig Biggio, Astros
142. Nick Swisher, A’s
143. Cliff Lee, Indians
144. Jay Gibbons, Orioles
145. Brad Wilkerson, Rangers
146. Joe Blanton, A’s
147. Mark Ellis, A’s
148. Bob Wickman, Indians
149. Joe Crede, White Sox
150. Doug Davis, Brewers
151. Michael Barrett, Cubs
152. Bill Hall, Brewers
153. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
154. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
155. Brett Myers, Phillies
156. Sean Casey, Pirates
157. Pedro Feliz, Giants
158. Orlando Cabrera, Angels
159. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
160. Todd Jones, Tigers
161. Jose Contreras, White Sox
162. Kevin Mench, Rangers
163. David Eckstein, Cardinals
164. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
165. Brandon Inge, Tigers
166. Jonny Gomes, Devil Rays
167. Kevin Millwood, Rangers
168. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
169. Nick Johnson, Nationals
170. Ronnie Belliard, Indians
171. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
172. Tom Gordon, Phillies
173. Mike Mussina, Yankees
174. Eddie Guardado, Mariners
175. Khalil Greene, Padres
176. Rod Barajas, Rangers
177. Dan Johnson, A’s
178. Adam Kennedy, Angels
179. Aaron Boone, Indians
180. Kenjii Johjima, Mariners
181. Keith Foulke, Red Sox
182. Dan Haren, A’s
183. C.C. Sabathia, Indians
184. Ray Durham, Giants
185. Jose Valverde, Diamondbacks
186. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
187. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
188. Omar Vizquel, Giants
189. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
190. J.D. Drew, Dodgers
191. Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers
192. Adam LaRoche, Braves
193. Corey Koskie, Brewers
194. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
195. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
196. Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
197. Trot Nixon, Red Sox
198. Jon Garland, White Sox
199. Geoff Jenkins, Brewers
200. Cliff Floyd, Mets

Kyle Kendrick Traded

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nKKqPOiJxI

3rd Base WTF?!

Mike Lowell vs. Ryan Zimmerman vs. Adrian Beltre vs. Alex Gordon vs. Josh Fields vs. probably a few more….

These guys could each be ranked above any other. So who the hell do you pick?

Mike Lowell – .324, 79, 21, 120, 3 Babip: .337, BARISP (Batting average with runners in scoring position) .356
Lowell is coming off the best season of the bunch but he’s also the oldest. His high BABIP and extremely high BARISP indicate some potential for regression in addition to the fact it was a career year for him. I’d bank on .300, 80, 23, 100.

Ryan Zimmerman – .267, 99, 24, 91, 4; .295, .247
Zimmerman has absolutely no lineup protection but he is moving to a bit of a better park. I expect an uptick in most categories, especially RBIs, given his horrible BARISP last year. Non-statistical projection: .275, 100, 27, 100.

Adrian Beltre – .276, 87, 26, 99, 14; .294, .247
Total crapshoot here. I feel like he’ll do well this year. The Ms should be motivated and I feel like Beltre is the kind of guy who’s effort has a lot to do with how well he does (like Manny). I’m guessing .275, 95, 30, 105, 10.

Alex Gordon – .247, 60, 15, 60, 14; .303, .250
This kid was supposed to be the second coming or something. We’ll know a lot more this year. I think he probably is the real deal, but will we find out given his lack of lineup protection? The Royals have a young core though that could surprise us with Billy Butler, Gordon and Teahan. My forecast: .275, 80, 25, 80, 15

Josh Fields – .244 ,54, 23, 67, 1; .298, .260
Here’s the guy that I’m most intrigued by. His stats are out of only 100 games, compared to the full seasons that the other 4 had. The dude didn’t make a ton of contact and struck out a lot, but when he connected, he connected. I’d expect his batting average to increase, but as long as his obp remains low, he won’t score many runs. .265, 70, 30, 90

So where do we go from here? How do you rank these guys? Beats the hell out of me….