Great Googgly-Moogley!

***Disclaimer: I’m sorry to make light of a situation that is actually quite serious, but I’ve now come to the point where the only way I can not completely shatter my faith in humanity is by pretending that Roger Clemens is a not a part of it and by laughing it off.  This man is just a huge pile of scum, and I’m venting in my off-brand way.  So, if you are not prepared for a post that is at moments of questionable taste, please read no further. ***

Okay, so I knew he was slime, and I may have fired off just about every other hideous insult and insinuation that I could at the man, but pedophile was never one upon which even I dared to tread.  Well, it’s like my father told me the summer before I was a camp counsellor: “Son, be careful.  Fifteen’ll get you twenty.”

Now here is a question for all you budding statisticians and econmetricians out there: is there any way to tease out or assign linear weights to Mindy McCready’s problems as an adult?  I mean, is she screwed up and in legal trouble because of the normal trappings of fame, or is it all based on the Lolita/statutory rape thing?  I would imagine that sex with an Ohioan claiming he is a born-and-bred Texan would be traumatic for a woman of any age (and maybe force her to express her mental anguish through bizarre and obscene ways), but for a 15-year-old to be forced to base all future sexual experiences off of this, well, it is no surprise that she has had a rough time.

I knew he was a dick, and I doubt there is a baseball player out there that hasn’t attempted to steal home on at least one of their lengthy roadtrips away from their wives, but seriously?  15?  When you are 28?  For reference, I’m 27 and I teach college students.  I’m freakin’ creeped out by how young most of the freshman look, and most of them are 18 (correction, I’m creeped out by what they wear while looking so young, but the point stands).  Sure, maybe I get the occasional 17-year-old in class who looks like she could be 19.  Maybe I’ve dabbled once or twice in those websites where 21-year-olds pretend to have just turned 18.  But 15?  Come on, Roger.  That’s still in puberty.  That’s still “hey, I might still grow another 3 inches” young.  That is really creepy.  You were 28.  You could drink.  You could vote.  You could rent a car without getting charged those higher rates.  She didn’t even have her learner’s permit.  She was younger than those brats on MTV who bitch about not getting a big enough party for their 16th birthday.  For Chrissakes, I needed a workers permit to get my summer job when I was 15.  I think I had my first kiss around that age, not my first emotionally traumatic sexual experience with a fat hillbilly (note: I was 19).  But hey, I’m sure it was very romantic for you.  You’re only human, right?  What was it, though? Did you find it sexy that, like you, she had never taken the SAT?  Were you kindred spirits because you both still read at a 9th-grade level?  She sang lyrics that really touched your soul?  Lyrics like, “Stuffed animals are my life” or “I’m looking forward to having to shave my legs” or “Gosh, I sure do love it when older men take me out, because then I get to watch R-rated movies” ?  Was it her song about turning ten, “Double-Digit Gidget”?  What the hell is wrong with you, you horrid, inhuman, prick?!?

What a sleaze.  I’d no longer be shocked by anything.  In fact, I’m going to google Clemens right now to see if there are any pictures of him clubbing a baby seal.

Oh no.

The Steve-o-sphere

I am going to quickly pimp my other blog – The Steve-o-sphere.  Just click the link on the right.  My last two posts are a sappy reminiscence of the Sonics, and why Hillary Clinton is like Rocky.

Fantasy Baseball Trades

I just spent a few minutes reading the message board on the home page for fantasy baseball on ESPN.  Needless to say I feel dumber for having done so.  One guy honestly was asking for an opinion on the following trade:

HanRam and Webb

for

Edgar Renteria, Carlos Quentin and Micah Owings

I honestly wish I was joking.  The stupidity drives me insane.

So as a topic for discussion.  When someone sends you a trade offer that seems terrible, how do you take it? 

Say they send you an offer to swap players that play the same position, your player is younger, having a better season, and is less injury prone.  How do you respond.  I personally tend to be offended.  I’d be interested in hearing others opinions on how everyone else takes terrible trade offers.

Pitch Effectiveness

Wow, this is an awesome article, especially for all you pitchers out there (Steve).

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-fast-should-a-fastball-be/

The Suckage of Sabathia

The league in which both Will and I reside just saw a blockbuster pitching trade, with three prospects headed to a rebuilding team in exchange for Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia has struggled mightily the first couple of weeks this season, and I am guessing that the concerns C.C.’s former owner had about him allowed this deal to take place. In fact, through today, Sabathia has an ERA of 13.50. To put Sabathia’s start in context, there are 24 pitchers with at least four starts in 2008, and the next worst ERA among them is Roy Oswalt’s at 6.65, and only three of those pitchers are sporting an ERA over five. Ouch.

Part of any analysis regarding Sabathia has to go back to last season.  Sabathia threw 241 innings in the regular season, and another 15.1 in the postseason, for a total of a whopping 256.1 innings in one year.  On the flip side, Sabathia never threw 120 pitches in a game, and only threw over 110 pitches in ten of 34 starts.  Having combed the game log, I did not find any evidence in the regular season of Sabathia’s diminishing returns.

The postseason, however, was a different story, and may be illuminating for his struggles this season.  Sabathia walked 13 batters in his 15.1 innings spread over three games, while striking out 14 over the same period.  His flyball percentage also dropped, but his groundball percentage dropped more, while his line drive percentage climbed from 18.4% in the regular season to 28.3%.

Why does Sabathia’s postseason matter?  Because those results are strikingly similar to what he has been posting so far this season.  Sabathia’s success came largely from an awesome K/BB ratio last year of 5.65; this year it’s an even 1.00.  He is still striking out a fair number of hitters, but the walk-rate has soared, from 1.38 BB/9 to 7.00 BB/9.  Additionally, his flyball percentage is largely unchanged, but he line drive percentage has jumped from 18.4% to 24.3%, almost completely accounting for his groundball percentage decline.  Consequently, opposing hitters have a .381 AVG against Sabathia when they put the ball in play.

These stats tell me that Sabathia still has his stuff, because the strikeout rate has largely maintained.  However, he is probably using every ounce of energy he has to simply throw the same pitch he could last year, thereby losing his mechanics.  In other words, he has no idea where the ball is going when he throws it.  That accounts for more pitches out of the strike zone and more pitches in the middle of the plate, but because his stuff is still strong he is able to miss bats at times.  It may very well be because he is tired from overuse last year, or he is simply struggling with his mechanics right now (his postseason struggles would suggest the former).  If his velocity is down from last year right now, I would totally avoid him because he could be hurt.  If the velocity is there, sit him for now and watch to see if he peripheral stats begin to progress back to their previous levels.  By June, he will either have figured this out, or he’s exhausted and possibly hurt and will have an extended DL stint.

In Desperate Need of Reading

The guys over at Firejoemorgan.com have always been good, but this article transcends the usual brilliance.  Needs to be posted.

When First Weeks Go Wrong

I felt pretty good about my team going into the first week of the season.  I have decided to stockpile power hitters this year and try to lock down two categories each week, home runs and RBIs.  A also should be able to compete for runs and stolen bases almost every week with my roster.  On the pitching side, I am not particularly great at anything, but I feel confident in strikeouts, and have a balanced attack across the board.

So, I was a little surprised when I started the season 0-9-1.  Is it time to panic?  Well, let’s look at the reasons:

Injuries: Granderson and Kazmir didn’t play at all, Bedard missed a start, Lidge missed most of the week… and I cut Chavez.  Not a great start in terms of health.  I lost by three runs, so Granderson clearly would have made a difference there.  Would Kazmir and Bedard caught me up in the pitching categories?  No, but I would have had a much healthier week.

My guys: I was second in home runs and RBIs (tie) for the week, and just ran into a buzzsaw, so my power did show up last week.  Also, Fielder didn’t do anything, so I feel confident that my power stats are sustainable.  However, only two stolen bases and a .253 average do scare me a little (I will be more comfortable punting that category if I am winning in others).  On the pitching side, Slowey got hurt, but Bonderman and Robertson (one of my sleepers) struggled.  In fact, all of my “sleeper” pitcher struggled with WHIP, and all but Villanueva struggled period.  I will need at least a couple of these guys to pan out.

My opponent: Congrats, Will, on the big week.  Will was first in the league in home runs and RBIs, second in runs, WHIP, strikeouts (tie), wins (tie), and third in ERA.  That’s a lot of power.  That I ran into such a strong team with a fantastic week should not be too discouraging.  If I had faced any other team, I would have had at least a little success.

Analysis: Not time to panic.  At the end of April I will be getting Kazmir and Granderson back, and should have a better idea of what my team’s capabilities are by then.  In the meantime, I should be monitoring how my team would do IF I had those two, and if I would still be struggling, it might be time to make some changes.

One bad week does not a season make, but it can expose some weakness that can be corrected.  I may need to reevaluate my back-end starting pitchers and my stolen bases.  This first couple of weeks of fantasy baseball are like spring training – you are learning what you have, and what you need, and the results won’t have a big impact (unless you miss the playoffs – but you are not going to do that, right?).

AL West Preview

This is part of a larger preview, available on my blog (eventually).  Don’t worry, I will be periodically posting division previews here.

AL West

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Last Year: 94-68 This Year: 88-74

Key Addition: OF Torii Hunter Key Loss: Orlando Cabrera

Starters: C Mike Napoli, 1B Casey Kotchman, 2B Howie Kendrick, 3B Chone Figgins, SS Maicer Izturis, OF Garret Anderson, OF Torii Hunter, OF Vladimir Guerrero, DH Gary Matthews, Jr.

Top Pitchers: SP John Lackey, SP Jered Weaver, SP Joe Saunders, SP Jon Garland, SP Ervin Santana, CL Francisco Rodriguez, RP Scot Shields, RP Darren Oliver

X-factor: Kendrick

This prediction is with the understanding that SP John Lackey will be out for roughly a month, while SP Kelvim Escobar is done for the season. The fact that the Angels’ top two pitchers are already on the shelf, and possible out for significant amounts of time, raised a huge red flag about their prospects this season. Shields is also hurt right now, Anderson has a history of getting banged up, and Guerrero runs like my dad. In other words, if the breaks go the wrong way, it could be a long season of heartbreak in Anaheim. The Angels have also picked up the bad habit of overpaying outfielders in their 30s coming off of contract years where they performed… above expectations (see: Hunter, Matthews, Jr). However, the offense remains potent, and Kendrick seems about ready to explode. The Angels also have a deep bench, and should be able to withstand injuries to the role players in their lineup. I don’t like the Angels that much, but just enough to make it through the season as division champs.

2. Seattle Mariners Last Year: 88-74 This Year: 86-76

Key Addition: SP Erik Bedard Key Loss: OF Jose Guillen

Starters: C Kenji Johjima, 1B Richie Sexson, 2B Jose Lopez, 3B Adrian Beltre, SS Yuniesky Betancourt, OF Raul Ibanez, OF Ichiro Suzuki, OF Brad Wilkerson, DH Jose Vidro.

Top Pitchers: SP Erik Bedard, SP Felix Herndandez, SP Jarrod Washburn, SP Carlos Silva, SP Miguel Batista, CL J.J. Putz, RP Eric O’Flaherty, RP Sean Green, RP Mark Lowe.

X-factor: O’Flaherty

Bill Bavasi has staked his job on Bedard, Wilkerson, Silva, Sexson, Vidro, the bullpen sans RP George Sherrill, etc., etc. The GM of the M’s has overhauled the roster largely through free agency and trades to bring in veterans and the price of the future. If Bedard is merely decent, or gets hurt, there is no way the Mariners are able to capture the division, and giving up stud OF Adam Jones and Sherrill and pitching prospects for him will be a waste. The M’s must win now. A look at their lineup, however, shows major holes. There is little power in the middle as Sexson continues his end-of-career slide, which may culminate in the first baseman getting cut before the trade deadline. The outfield is also poor defensively, and there is little speed outside of Ichiro. I believe that, once the Reds fall out of contention, OF Ken Griffey, Jr. will be on the block, and will want to come back to Seattle. If healthy, it may be the move that gets the M’s from an anemic offense to an average one that could combine with their strong starting pitching and top end of the bullpen to win a weak division.

3. Oakland Athletics Last Year: 76-86 This Year: 80-82

Key Addition: RP Keith Foulke Key Losses: SP Dan Haren, OF Nick Swisher

Starters: C Kurt Suzuki, 1B Daric Barton, 2B Mark Ellis, 3B Eric Chavez, SS Bobby Crosby, OF Jack Cust, OF Emil Brown, OF Travis Buck, DH Mike Sweeney

Top Pitchers: SP Joe Blanton, SP Rich Harden, SP Justin Duchscherer, SP Lenny DiNardo, SP Dana Eveland, CL Huston Street, RP Keith Foulke, RP Alan Embree

X-factor: Crosby

Come on, Steve. Oakland was ten games under .500 last season, and they just traded away their best starting pitcher and their best hitter. How are they better this season? First, there is no way the A’s are as injured as they were last year. Oakland only had four hitters qualify for the batting title, and only six played in 100 games. Chavez and Crosby missed 141 games between them. Harden was also living on the DL in 2007, pitching in only seven games, starting four. If Harden starts at least 20 games and the A’s are able to run the same starting lineup out on the field for 100 games, this could be a dangerous team. Barton is the real deal, and others like Buck and Cust are power guys who should become quality hitters soon (Buck hit 39 doubles in 84 minor league games in 2006). Oakland, mark my words, is one year and some health away from becoming a major force in the West, and two years from challenging for the pennant. All hail Billy Beane.

4. Texas Rangers Last Year: 75-87 This Year: 71-91

Key Addition: OF Josh Hamilton Key Loss: Akinori Otsuka

Starters: C Gerald Laird, 1B Ben Broussard, 2B Ian Kinsler, 3B Hank Blalock, SS Michael Young, OF Marlon Byrd, OF Josh Hamilton, OF Milton Bradley, DH Frank Catalanato

Top Pitchers: SP Kevin Millwood, SP Vicente Padilla, SP Jason Jennings, SP Kason Gabbard, SP Luis Mendoza, CL C.J. Wilson, RP Joaquin Benoit, RP Eddie Guardado

X-factor: 3B Hank Blalock

Texas gave up the third most runs in the American League last season, and addressed their clear pitching need by… trading away one of their top pitching prospects for Hamilton. Hamilton may be one of the ten most talented hitters on the planet, and if he can stay healthy will be a superstar, but it was still an odd trade for the Rangers. Also, “key losses” is misleading because Texas dumped a number of players at the trade deadline last season, including 1B Mark Teixeira. For Teixeira, the Rangers received C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who will start the season in AAA despite vying for the starting catcher position against Laird.  Further complicating matters for Texas is their porous infield defense, especially if Blalock goes down again, and a pitching staff that will desperately need strong gloves behind it will go wanting.  Texas will continue to score, and if Blalock is able to return to form this will be one of the most potent offenses in baseball.  I just don’t see how Texas is going to keep other teams from unloading on their undermanned rotation.

Ellsbury, Lowell Traded for Wright, Low-A Pitcher

According to ESPN.com, in an effort to shore up their old and injury-plauged outfield, the Mets have agreed to terms with the Boston Red Sox to swap rising young stars Ellsbury & Wright, with the Sox including all-star 3B Mike Lowell in the deal.  The move comes the day after Angel Pagan tweaked an oblique during his final at bat of the season opener, limiting his availabilty for the forseeable future and once again creating a hole in the outfield.  Ellsbury and Lowell will fill out the left side of the field for the Mets, who are expected to keep Beltran in center.  David Wright is expected to start at 3B in Oakland for the Red Sox tonight, with Coco Crisp to remain as a CF for the Red Sox.  Bobby Kielty will serve as the Sox backup outfielder, and Brandon Moss is expected to be recalled from AAA Pawtucket once his 10-day assignment is over (a player must remain in the minors for 10 days after being optioned unless there is an injury on the big league club). 

In addition to Wright, the Sox will also receive minor league lefthander Angel Calero from Savannah.  The 3rd year pro is a marginal prospect with a live arm, projected to be a marginal middle reliever if he ever cracks the majors.

The fantasy options from this are very interesting.  Expect Wright’s doubles to spike as he pulls hits off of the Green Monster in his home games, though his HR numbers will suffer similarly.  Expect about a 40-60 point increase in his OPS for the year.  Lowell, on the other hand, should see his power numbers dip a bit. 

 Per Jason Stark at ESPN.com